Before I get started, I’m going to do something new here. I’m going
to quickly recap last week’s Studs/Duds/Locks, pointing out where I was
right and where I was wrong. This is something I’ll most likely
incorporate into every article going forward. With that said, let’s get
started.
My Studs/Duds/Locks Week 9 recap:
Where I was right: Cam Newton, Josh Freeman, Doug Martin, Trent Richardson, Steve Smith, DeSean Jackson, Packers D/ST, Chargers D/ST, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Christian Ponder, Fred Jackson, Percy Harvin, Kenny Britt, Jermichael Finley, Dennis Pitta, Eagles D/ST, and BOTH my Lock picks.
Where I was wrong: Matthew Stafford, Alfred Morris, Denarius Moore, Greg Olsen, Adrian Peterson.
Overall, I’d say I had a great week, other than being completely wrong about Adrian Peterson. That was a prime example of the “never bench your stud player(s), no matter what the match-up is” theory. That move actually almost cost me in one of my leagues. Woops. Let’s hope I’m not THAT wrong about someone again this week. Also, anytime I mention fantasy points in this article, its referring to leagues with standard scoring in place.
Week 10 Studs
Matt Ryan QB Atlanta Falcons
Matty Ice gets the New Orleans Saints this weekend. The Saints have given up 16 touchdowns and nearly 300 yards a game through the air this season, and an average of 21 fantasy points a game to opposing quarterbacks.
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| Luck has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners. |
Andrew Luck QB Indianapolis Colts
Indi’s rookie sensation gets to pick on the 25th ranked
Jacksonville pass defense on Thursday night. Luck scored 23 fantasy
points the last time he and the Jags met. Look for similar numbers this
time around.
Ben Roethlisberger QB Pittsburgh Steelers
Big Ben has been pretty consistent this year, averaging 17
fantasy points a game. The Chiefs have given up 17 touchdowns through
the air this year, along with an average of 17 fantasy points a game to
opposing quarterbacks. See the theme here?
Sleeper Alert: Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Buffalo Bills
Fitz is going up against a suspect New England secondary that has
given up 17 touchdowns through the air, and the 6th most fantasy points
to quarterbacks this season. He also scored 23 fantasy points last time
these two teams met. It’s a good match-up play if you have a QB on a bye
this week.
Reggie Bush RB Miami Dolphins
Although his touches seem to be diminishing, his Week 10 match-up
is a great one against the Titans. They give up 141 yards a game, and
have given up 9 touchdowns on the ground this season – the fourth most
fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Willis McGahee RB Denver Broncos
Just like Alfred Morris last week, McGahee goes up against the
Panthers run defense this week. Hopefully he’ll be able to take better
advantage of the match-up than Morris did.
Stevan Ridley RB New England Patriots
The Patriots backfield is becoming almost as unpredictable as the Redskins backfield was last season. Assuming
Ridley gets the majority of the touches, he should be able to have a
solid game once again against the Bills (he ran for over 100 yards and 2
touchdowns in Week 4 against these boys). The Bills defense ranks 31st
against the run – giving up the second most fantasy points to running
backs, an average of 170 yards a game, and more rushing touchdowns than
any other team (14).
Sleeper Alert: Vick Ballard RB Indianapolis Colts
Donald Brown is currently being hampered by injury and might not
play this week. This should mean that Vick Ballard will get the bulk of
the carries Thursday night against a Jacksonville defense that gives up
over 130 yards a game, and has surrendered 12 touchdowns on the ground
this season.
Reggie Wayne WR Indianapolis Colts
Wayne has been an absolute beast this season. He is Andrew Luck’s
favorite weapon and leads the team in targets. See: Andrew Luck.
Roddy White & Julio Jones WRs Atlanta Falcons
Once again, the Saints have given up 16 touchdowns and nearly 300 yards a game through the air this season. No brainer.
Stevie Johnson WR Buffalo Bills
Unless he has a major setback with his thigh injury, Johnson is a
great start this week against the Patriots defense. They give up the
fifth most fantasy points to wide receivers. He didn’t have a great game
last time these two teams met, but that can be blamed entirely on
Fitzpatrick, who missed Johnson on two wide open plays that would’ve
been touchdowns. Hopefully Fitz will hit Stevie this time around.
Sleeper Alert: Brian Hartline WR Miami Dolphins
Hartline finally had himself a bounce back week last week against
the Colts, catching 8 passes for 107 yards. He should be able to keep
the momentum going against a Titans defense that ranks 27th against the
pass, and has given up 20 touchdowns through the air.
Heath Miller TE Pittsburgh Steelers
Heeeeeeeeeeeath has been a pleasant surprise this year in fantasy
land. Most of his success is touchdown reliant, but they’ve been there
and should continue to be there against a Chiefs defense that has given
up the fifth most touchdown receptions to opposing tight ends this
season.
Tony Gonzalez TE Atlanta Falcons
See: Roddy White & Julio Jones, or Matt Ryan.
Jason Witten TE Dallas Cowboys
Boy, do I regret giving up on this guy early on in the season.
Witten has come alive in a big way since the Chicago game, and after
seeing what Jimmy Graham did to the struggling Eagles defense last
Sunday night…this guy should be money in the bank this week.
Steelers D/ST
You guys remember how I said last week that the Chiefs give up the
most fantasy points out of any other team to the defenses they play? And
how the Chargers defense put up 25 points against them last week? The trend has become to play whatever defense is going against the Chiefs. Follow the trend again this week.
Seahawks D/ST
Gang green comes to Seattle this weekend. The Seahawks play awfully
tough at home, and defenses who have gone up against Sanchez and co.
have racked up the seventh most fantasy points this season.
Week 10 Duds
Carson Palmer QB Oakland Raiders
Palmer has been pretty good recently, but he still turns the ball
over a little too much for my liking. The Ravens defense isn’t what it
used to be, but they’ve only given up 6 scores through the air this
season and the third fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Start him at
your own risk.
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| Vick took a beating from the Saints. |
Vick could barely stand to deliver the ball against the Saints,
nevermind against a Rob Ryan defense in Dallas. Expect the boys to
bring the heat on Vick, which will most likely result in turnovers
because lets face it…that’s what Vick does. Don’t be surprised if he
comes out of Dallas with less than 12 fantasy points.
Christian Ponder QB Minnesota Vikings
Ponder has done nothing recently to warrant being a fantasy
starter. With the possibility of not having his ONE play-maker, Percy
Harvin, on the field Sunday I just don’t see anything great happening
here.
Steven Jackson & Daryl Richardson RBs St. Louis Rams
[Insert RB(s) facing the 49ers defense here.]
Felix Jones RB Dallas Cowboys
Yeah, I know Felix will be getting the start again this Sunday with
Murray still being out, but this guy has just been straight garbage
since the Ravens game. Leave him on the bench.
Ryan Matthews RB San Diego Chargers
Once again Matthews was hyped up by every single fantasy football
analyst before the season, and once again he’s been a pretty big
disappointment. I was never too high on this guy, myself. His match-up
this week against the Bucs isn’t a good one either – they give up the
fewest yards per game to running backs. Couple that with the fact that
Matthews has only found the end zone ONCE this season, and you have the
reasons he is on my Duds list.
Jeremy Maclin WR Philadelphia Eagles
If this guy can’t produce against the Saints, what’s supposed to
make me think he can produce against the Cowboys? The boys give up the
fifth fewest fantasy points to wideouts. That, and Vick probably won’t
even be able to stay upright long enough to feed Maclin the ball
effectively.
Denarius Moore WR Oakland Raiders
Tampa Bay did a nice job limiting Moore last week, and I expect the
Ravens to try and mock that strategy. Also, see: Carson Palmer.
Kyle Rudolph TE Minnesota Vikings
If you haven’t called it quits on this guy and dropped him yet…what
are you waiting for?! I liked him earler in the season, but after
getting a total of ONE point in the past three weeks (with two games
having ZERO points), you can’t still possibly be using a roster spot on
Rudolph. I’m done with him, and you should be too.
Jared Cook TE Tennessee Titans
Here’s another tight end that has been disappointing this season.
He’s only scored double-digit fantasy points once, and that was only
because of a touchdown. Don’t expect him to do it again against the
Dolphins, either. They haven’t given up a single touchdown to a tight
end this season.
Jacob Tamme TE Denver Broncos
Let’s see…what has Tamme done this season? He scored 10 fantasy
points in Week 1, but since then hasn’t scored more than 5 in a single
game. Another good example of a tight end who shouldn’t even be on your
roster at this point.
Falcons D/ST
Are you really going to play the defense that is going up against
Drew Brees and the potent Saints offense this week? I didn’t think so.
Week 10 Locks
Seahawks giving 6.5 points to the Jets
Seattle is no joke at home. This defense will limit the Jets offense big time. I can see Seattle winning by 10.
Saints getting 2.5 points from the Falcons
Gonna go a little bold here. The high and mighty undefeated Falcons
aren’t all they’re cracked up to be. They’ve only beaten one team with a
record over .500 and have struggled with poor teams in their own house.
They’ve gotta play on the road in the New Orleans this week. The Saints
will put up points on the Falcons defense, and this time I don’t think
Matty Ice and the crew will be able to out-pace their opponent.
this article can also be found at:
http://www.cappershub.com/studsdudslocks-week-10/
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